How does Calgary’s housing market compare to CMHC’s national forecast?

CMHC’s July 2026 outlook expects weak sales, declining prices, and fewer housing starts across Canada through the rest of the year, with Ontario and B.C. struggling the most. CMHC specifically flags the Prairies, including Alberta, as an exception where sales momentum should hold up better. Calgary’s June 2026 CREB® data backs that up for detached homes — benchmark prices hit record highs in three districts. But the city’s apartment condo market, down nearly 9 per cent year over year, is actually tracking closer to the national softness CMHC describes.

By Steve Kabachia | July 23, 2026

Every few months, a national forecast lands and every homeowner in the country reads it the same way: as a statement about their own street. It rarely is. CMHC’s latest outlook, released this week, is a good example of why that matters — because what it says about Canada as a whole and what Calgary’s own numbers say right now are only partly the same story.

Here’s how they actually line up.

What CMHC Is Forecasting Nationally

CMHC’s summer update to its 2026 Housing Market Outlook isn’t optimistic. The organization expects “slow economic growth, weak housing demand, declining home prices, lower housing starts and easing rental markets” through the rest of the year.

The reasoning: very slow population growth, ongoing economic uncertainty, high borrowing costs, and modest income growth are all limiting demand at the same time. CMHC expects national baseline economic growth of just 0.7 per cent in 2026. Sales should improve gradually, but CMHC expects them to stay below the levels typical of the last decade well into 2027 and 2028.

On price specifically, CMHC’s language is direct: “Home prices will continue to adjust to weak housing demand and muted sales. Prices are expected to decline through 2026 and then grow only modestly afterward.”

Two live sources of uncertainty are shaping that forecast. The U.S.-Canada trade war escalated again this week, with new tariff threats on Canadian goods. And renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have CMHC watching oil prices as a potential driver of inflation that could weaken housing demand even further if it persists.

None of that is Calgary-specific. It’s the backdrop the whole country is reading from right now.

Why the Prairies — and Calgary’s Detached Market — Look Different

Here’s the part of the CMHC report that actually matters for Calgary: the forecast isn’t uniform across the country, and Alberta isn’t lumped in with the markets CMHC is most worried about.

CMHC expects Western Canada to lead the country in growth in 2026, helped by stronger commodity prices tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. It specifically calls out “market momentum” keeping sales relatively strong in the Prairies and Quebec, while Ontario and British Columbia — Canada’s two largest markets — continue to struggle with affordability and slower population growth eating into sales volumes.

Calgary’s June data is consistent with that regional read, at least for detached homes. The city-wide detached benchmark hit $750,500 in June — up over the previous month, even while CMHC is telling the rest of the country to expect prices to keep declining through the year. The West district posted a benchmark of $1,025,000, up nearly 4 per cent year over year, and along with the North West and City Centre, all three districts reached record-high detached benchmark prices in June. Detached months of supply actually tightened to 2.49, slightly lower than a year ago.

If you own a detached home in a strong Calgary district right now, the national headlines about a struggling Canadian housing market genuinely aren’t describing your situation. That’s a real regional divergence, not wishful thinking — CMHC’s own forecast is what’s calling it out.

The Part of Calgary Still Tracking the National Story: Apartment Condos

Here’s where the comparison gets more honest, though — because not every part of Calgary is bucking the national trend.

The apartment condo segment is Calgary’s soft spot, and its numbers actually look a lot more like the national picture CMHC is describing than like the Prairie exception. June’s condo benchmark came in at $299,000, down almost 9 per cent year over year. Months of supply climbed to 4.91 — up 23 per cent from last year and the highest of any property type in the city. Days on market stretched to 49. Sales were down 20 per cent from last June.

That’s not a coincidence, and it’s not really a contradiction of CMHC’s regional read either. Calgary’s condo softness has its own local driver — several consecutive years of record-high, high-density housing starts landing on the resale market at the same time migration-driven demand has cooled. But the effect looks the same as what CMHC describes nationally: weak demand, softening prices, and a market that favours buyers.

The takeaway is that “Alberta is an exception” is true at the province level and true for Calgary’s detached market specifically. It is not true for every property type inside the city. Which segment you’re in matters more than which province you’re in — a pattern that shows up again and again in this market.

What This Means If You’re Buying or Selling in Calgary Right Now

If you’re selling a detached home, particularly in the West, North West, or City Centre, the national “market is weak” narrative isn’t your reality, and pricing too conservatively because of what you read about the country as a whole would leave money on the table. That said, the trade war and oil price volatility CMHC flagged are real variables for a commodity-exposed economy like Alberta’s have to watched carefully, even from a position of strength.

If you’re selling a condo, the opposite caution applies. Calgary’s condo market is genuinely soft right now, in line with what CMHC is describing for the country overall, and pricing to last year’s numbers — or to what a detached home down the street just sold for — isn’t a strategy that works in this segment.

If you’re a buyer, condos remain the segment with the most room to negotiate in this city. Detached buyers, especially in the districts posting record prices, should expect real competition regardless of what the national headlines say.